FIRE is hard to accomplish, not impossible. For many the dream of financial independence and retiring early is extremely alluring. Enough to motivate us to accomplish the necessary personal finance goals and overcome the hurdles of a system that wasn’t intended to allow escape from. It is something to be proud of and celebrated. Then just as it’s right in front of us we can find ourselves unable to pull the trigger, we FIRE choke. Fear of taking that last step is common. 

I wasn’t blind to the many risks of early retirement and covered it in my plan. Yet I still experienced anxiety from the enormity of my retirement move. It’s all too easy to focus on the celebrated sunny day images of early retirement and overlook or underestimate the probability of storms. That is until it’s all on the line at crunch time.

Image Source

Avoid FIRE Choke: Dealing With The Risks Of Early Retirement 

The risks of early retirement are real. They must be recognized and accounted for in any early retirement plan. Even if we’re fortunate enough to never actually experience them, without understanding how we would counter them can cause expending too much energy and time worrying about “what if”. 

I had delayed my early retirement by a year because the recession came right as I hit my goals. It ruthlessly moved my target further away from me and set me back. But later when all signs pointed to being good to go, my recent memory of the recession’s last minute target devastation caused me a little battle with FIRE choke. It would have been much more paralyzing had I not accounted for all the risks we’re warned about. 

Market Risk

Investing over the long-term usually favors the investor. Retiring early means relying on our portfolio over a much longer period of time. But using a retirement calculator that accounts for multiple historical return cycles isn’t a guarantee that we won’t enter a risky run at the wrong time or for a devastating prolonged period of time. It was something I had to mentally deal with.

My counter to relieve some of the market risks of early retirement was with diversification and rebalancing allocations as necessary. I had the stock to bond ratios to support my investment risk tolerance. Along with enough cash to get through any bumpy markets. After my recession experience I wanted a recession hardened portfolio. Now 11 years into my early retirement I have to say it has worked flawlessly. The portfolio also proved less worrisome when I saw during the pandemic market drop that my portfolio allocations did their job. 

My tip- To reduce the market risk worries of early retirement pick a portfolio allocation, diversification, and cash holding strategy within your risk tolerance that relies on data. Don’t bounce around based on emotions. Especially those driven by fear or greed. I’ve heard too many stories of folks jumping in and out of their strategy and causing damage to both their portfolio and retirement.

Health Insurance- Medical Costs

Medical cost is something that causes many to FIRE Choke. Retiring early before Medicare eligibility can make retirement healthcare pricey. I had earned a retirement health insurance benefit. My short-term healthcare was covered. But my company had been merged with those that had an adversarial attitude toward earlier earned benefit promises. Although benefit cuts made before I retired were worrisome enough, I had to counter concerns about how much worse it could get over time. I retired 14 years before I would be Medicare age. When I retired the ACA was being worked on, nowhere near passing into law. 

With my early retirement at the end of 2009 I had a monthly health insurance premium for my wife and I of $475 with $25 copays. Now in 2021 I pay $1472 with a midrange deductible before an 80/20 payout begins. If it becomes too unaffordable my “plan B” is to structure my income to use the ACA.

My tip- What I did to calm the risks of early retirement medical cost concerns was to double my medical budget of insurance premiums plus out of pocket costs when running my numbers through the retirement calculator. In hindsight my doubleling was not enough to cover my full pre-medicare 14 year period. I recommend using a projected budget that uses double current healthcare costs for the 1rst 7 years of early retirement. Then trippel it for any remaining years before Medicare. See how your retirement calculation works out for the years before Medicare and after.

Remember, it’s just long-term projections in a calculator

I had to plug in a higher withdrawal amount into the FIRECalc calculator than I was planning on using. What I was looking for was my retirement funding success rate. I ended up initially with a higher portfolio withdrawal rate than the recommended 4% but post Medicare it will be lower. 

No More Paychecks Syndrome

The one joy of employment is getting a paycheck. Then doing our thing of managing the budget plus putting some aside to pay ourselves. Knowing that paychecks end when we walk off the job can mess with our head. I planned to get around this by having my IRA account holder directly deposit a monthly check into my bank account. 

My tip- Create your own paycheck scheme. I went from bi-weekly work paychecks to once a month distributions for my bucket strategized IRA. I had the retirement distribution deposited into a savings account and I then make bi-monthly paycheck transfers from that. 

Thoughts Of Needing More Money

One of the risks of early retirement is not having enough money. Even when the numbers check out it’s easy to succumb to thinking to maybe playing it safe and accumulate even more. This is a common FIRE Choke. Putting retirement off for another year or longer of portfolio padding. Both the fear of running out of money or being greedy and thinking more is always better than anything else can cause us to choke and derail retirement plans at the last moment. 

My tip – Retiring on our terms means picking the day we toss the job for the adventure of retirement freedom and owning our own time. When the thoughts of needing more creeped into my mind, I reminded myself that time is finite and not guaranteed. My father in-law shared through his own experience that retiring early is like leaving the casino when ahead. I used that metaphor to quiet the more money seduction.

Be Mentally Ready

Most importantly is planning to be mentally ready to retire and walk away from the only life you have known. It might not be the life you enjoy, but it’s the devil you know. Even if all the other bases are covered, not being mentally ready means none of it will matter. FIRE Choke is then inevitable. Even if we were to power past that, there would be no mental peace about the decision to retire early if our head isn’t right. There are plenty of nonfinancial aspects that we need to account for to avoid mentally regretting our early retirement decision.

My tip- Plan to deal with separating your identity from what you did for a job, expanding your social life, defining an ever changing purpose, and transitioning from saver to spender of your portfolio. Much of this requires being aware of it before retirement. But most will have to be fine tuned on the fly after entering retirement. So finally, give yourself time to work through it. 

There are many reasons why we may question our decision to retire early once the goals have been met and our plan looks solid. Dealing with issues that range from fear to greed are common. We just need to be aware of them and address them logically. If we can’t account for them in a reasonable way and there’s still mental reluctance then maybe it really isn’t our time to take the leap. There’s no shame in that. Afterall, we’re the ones that have to live with ourselves and the outcome of our decisions.